Nigeria’s energy landscape relies heavily on fossil fuels, with natural gas and oil generating over 80% of the country’s electricity. While this has fueled development, it brings serious environmental, economic, and access challenges. Fossil fuel dependency heightens Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil price swings and contributes to significant greenhouse gas emissions, intensifying climate change effects. Despite an installed capacity of 12,000-13,000 MW, Nigeria’s actual generation often dips to 3,000-5,000 MW, leaving approximately 55% of Nigerians—mainly in rural areas—without reliable power. This gap forces many people to rely on expensive and polluting diesel generators, while the country’s low per capita energy consumption limits productivity in both industry and households. Globally, nations are shifting toward renewable energy, but Nigeria’s contribution to renewables is minimal, sitting at around 8 TWh. By tapping into its abundant solar, wind, and hydropower resources, Nigeria could stabilize its electricity supply, mitigate the $29 billion economic losses caused by power outages each year, and move toward a more sustainable and resilient energy future.
The Case for Renewable Energy in Nigeria
Nigeria’s power sector is plagued by frequent grid failures, outdated infrastructure, and insufficient generation capacity, all of which hinder economic stability and growth. Just this year, the national grid experienced 11 collapses, with several occurring within weeks, causing widespread blackouts. These disruptions stem from aging infrastructure and the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN)’s inability to maintain a steady power supply. While Nigeria’s installed capacity stands at 13,000 MW, actual power generation often drops below 5,000 MW,due to limitations in natural gas supply for thermal plants. This leaves businesses and households dependent on expensive diesel generators, driving up operational costs. Despite Nigeria’s vast renewable energy potential, particularly in solar and hydro, the country remains overly reliant on fossil fuels. Nigeria has an estimated 427 GW of solar potential but currently only generates about 5 GW. A 2016 power purchase agreement sought to add 1.1 GW of solar to the grid, but progress stalled due to infrastructure issues and regulatory roadblocks. Similarly, Nigeria’s hydroelectric potential stands at 14,120 MW, but only 20% of that capacity has been developed. Significant contributors like the Kainji and Jebba plants have made progress, but there is so much more to be tapped. Efforts like the Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP) and the Solar Power Naija initiative show promising signs, but they’ve yet to realize the full potential of renewable energy. Transitioning to renewables could reduce costs, create jobs, and stabilize energy prices, all while reducing Nigeria’s reliance on fossil fuels. Renewables also offer the opportunity to boost energy security, foster economic growth, and promote environmental sustainability. By harnessing its renewable resources, Nigeria can ease the pressure on its ailing grid and provide more reliable, affordable power to its population.
Lessons from Global Renewable Energy Success Stories
Looking beyond Nigeria, there are several global examples of renewable energy success that can offer valuable insights. Kenya, Morocco, and India have all made impressive strides in renewable energy development, and their experiences can guide Nigeria’s efforts.
Kenya’s Geothermal and Solar Success: Kenya has emerged as a leader in geothermal energy, with a current installed capacity of around 1,000 MW. The Menengai Geothermal Project alone aims to add 400 MW to the grid. This initiative has created jobs and stimulated local economic growth. In addition, Kenya’s geothermal energy production is environmentally friendly, with emissions as low as 18.3 gCO2e/kWh. Kenya’s success stands in stark contrast to some of Nigeria’s renewable energy projects that have faltered, such as the 1.1 GW solar power project from the 2016 power purchase agreement. The difference lies in Kenya’s steady policy support and ongoing investments in infrastructure.
Morocco’s Noor Solar Complex: Morocco’s Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, one of the largest concentrated solar power facilities in the world, operates with a 580 MW capacity across multiple phases. Over 1,000 jobs were created, while the project itself contributes to reducing emissions by 690,000 tons of CO2 annually. Morocco’s success demonstrates the power of a strategic, long-term approach with clear targets. Nigeria’s solar potential, estimated at 427 GW, is vast but largely untapped—current solar generation is only about 5 GW. Morocco’s structured approach to solar development highlights the need for Nigeria to address regulatory challenges and policy barriers to unlock its solar capacity.
India’s Solar Transformation: India’s solar expansion, driven by ambitious targets and a low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at $0.05 per kWh, offers lessons for Nigeria. India’s initiatives have generated over 40 GW of solar capacity, improved rural electricity access, and displaced coal-based power. In Nigeria, initiatives like the Nigeria Electrification Project and Solar Power Naija show promise for off-grid solar expansion but still fall short of realizing the full potential of solar energy in the national grid. India’s success underscores the value of continuous government support and clear financing frameworks to bring projects to completion.
Key Takeaways for Nigeria
From these international examples, Nigeria can draw essential lessons: the importance of policy support, sustained investment, and infrastructure development. By establishing a more reliable regulatory environment and building partnerships that encourage project completion, Nigeria can move beyond stalled efforts and drive a robust renewable energy transition that meets its national demands and climate goals
How Nigeria Can Improve Its Renewable Energy Policies
Nigeria’s path to widespread renewable energy adoption is guided by several policies, but actual implementation has been slow. The Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP), for instance, aims to boost renewable energy's share from 13% in 2015 to 23% by 2025 and 36% by 2030, setting ambitious capacity targets for solar, wind, and biomass. The National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) complement this by providing a regulatory framework for sustainable energy management. To further accelerate the transition, the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) targets $10 billion in clean energy investments in its first year, while financial incentives like Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs), customs duty exemptions, and green bonds aim to attract investors. Yet, inconsistent regulatory practices, outdated infrastructure, and limited access to capital have slowed the adoption pace, underscoring the need for a stronger policy foundation. A refined policy framework could address these barriers and provide investor confidence. For example, streamlining regulations for FiTs and Net Metering would ensure reliable returns, making Nigeria more attractive for renewable investments. Expanding local currency financing and green bond issuances could reduce forex risks, while incentives for local manufacturing would boost domestic production of renewable technologies, creating jobs and lowering costs. To truly unlock Nigeria’s renewable potential, regular policy reviews are crucial to adapt to evolving technologies. This structured approach would ensure that Nigeria meets its renewable energy goals, paving the way for a sustainable and economically vibrant future.
Conclusion
Nigeria is on the cusp of a transformative shift toward renewable energy. Government plans, like the Renewable Energy Master Plan and Energy Transition Plan, target a leap in renewable supply from 13% to 36% by 2030. Yet, despite these ambitions, inconsistent policies, financial obstacles, and infrastructure gaps slow progress. Strengthening frameworks, broadening financing options, and modernizing infrastructure are critical to unlocking Nigeria’s potential in renewables. Collaborative action among government, private sector, and international partners will be essential for creating a sustainable, inclusive energy future that fosters economic growth, reduces emissions, and increases energy access for all Nigerians.
Comments